A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) discovered that worldwide renewable generation in the electricity supply is expected to exceed one-third as demand continues to rise in 2024. Worldwide electricity demand is predicted to increase by under 2% in 2023, a decline from the previous year, predominantly due to a decreased demand in progressive economies due to global energy challenges and lower economic development.
A recovery to 3.3% growth is anticipated in 2024, with renewable energy generation expected to become the strongest electricity source, exceeding coal. The IEA report highlights that even with electricity demand increasing worldwide, the deployment of renewable is on a path to achieve this added demand globally over the next few years.
Keisuke Sadamoeri, the director for energy markets and security at IEA, explains that the global electricity demand is expected to grow considerably in the future and that it is positive to see renewables accounting for a larger share of electricity generation, resulting in reduced use of fossil fuels for power generation.
After minimal growth of 1% in 2022, fossil-powered generation is due to decline by 0.6% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. Worldwide emissions from electricity generation are due to experience slight declines of approximately 1% in 2023 and 2024, mainly due to declining coal-powered generation. Worldwide emissions from electricity generation experienced a slight decline of approximately 1% this year and next, mainly due to declining coal-powered generation, resulting in an overall decrease in total CO2 emissions.
According to the latest statistical review of the world energy report, energy-based global carbon emissions reached a record level with a 0.8% increase in 2022, contributing to 87% of total global emissions. Last year, the share of renewable energy in primary energy consumption increased by nearly 1%, reaching 7.5%, while fossil fuel consumption as a percentage of direct energy stayed relatively stable at 82%. Despite the increase in renewables, the global hydropower capacity factor has been dropping over the past decade, resulting in approximately 240 terawatt hours (TWh) less electricity per year than would have been if capacity factors had remained the same. The gap is currently taken primarily by fossil-powered generation.
Electricity demand in the EU
In the EU, the electricity demand is expected to decline by 3% in 2023, following a similar decline in 2022. This reduction is expected despite the growth in electrification, with a record number of electric vehicles and heat pumps sold. The energy-intensive industries n Europe continue to be recovering from the lower production levels of last year, creating a 6% year-on-year drop in total EU electricity demand during the first half of 2023. In contrast, developing economies like China and India have witnessed rising growth in electricity demand. China’s electricity demand is anticipated to rise by 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024, while Indi’a average annual growth rate is predicted to reach 6.5% exceeding its 2015-19 average figures of 5.2%. The EU is anticipated to experience the quickest decline (average 17%) in CO2 emission intensity compared to other large-scale energy-consuming areas, despite witnessing a year-on-year increase in emissions in 2022 due to rising coal-powered generation.