At EIC Bankable Energies Conference, a panel on “Geopolitics: The New Investment Reality” brought together perspectives from across the energy value chain to explore how capital is responding to sustained global disruption.
The panel consisted of:
Moderator: Stuart Broadley, Chief Executive Officer, Energy Industries Council
Keiren Lake, Business Development Manager, Siemens Energy
Michael Stirling, CEO & Chairman of the Investment Board, Stirling Infrastructure Partners
Clément Weber, Managing Director - Head of Advisory, Green Giraffe Advisory
The conversation moved beyond short-term volatility to a more fundamental question: how do you deploy capital effectively when geopolitical disruption is persistent, not cyclical?
Uncertainty is Now Structural, Not Temporary
Markets are no longer pricing isolated shocks, but sustained volatility. Conflict, political change, and supply disruption are now embedded into investment decisions.
The implication is clear: cost of capital is structurally higher, and resilience must be built into projects from the outset.
Supply Chain Strategy Has Become Core to Bankability
Recent shocks have exposed how fragile global supply chains can be. Overreliance on single regions or suppliers is now a material risk to delivery.
In response, leading players are:
diversifying sourcing across geographies
investing directly into suppliers
building internal capability where critical
Supply chain resilience is now a prerequisite for investment, not an operational afterthought.
New Projects Carry the Greatest Risk
Operational assets with contracted revenues continue to perform, even in volatile conditions.
By contrast, new developments are where risk is most acute. Rising input costs, higher financing costs, and slower decision-making are pushing marginal projects out of viability.
This is driving a more disciplined, selective approach to pipeline development.
Energy Security is Reshaping Investment Priorities
Policy is increasingly driven by security of supply rather than climate targets alone.
This creates a dual dynamic:
accelerating investment into domestic renewables and infrastructure
while, at times, supporting fossil fuels in the short term
Energy security is now a primary investment lens.
Financing Conditions Are the Critical Constraint
While the strategic case for the energy transition remains strong, financing conditions are tighter.
Higher interest rates and reduced equity availability are delaying projects and compressing returns.
Stable, predictable policy is essential to unlock capital at scale.
Distributed Energy is Gaining Strategic Relevance
Community energy and microgrids are moving from niche to strategically relevant.
Individually small, but increasingly viable when aggregated, these assets offer:
improved local energy security
stronger public acceptance
potential for scalable investment models
The challenge now is integration, particularly across grid, storage, and affordability.
Geopolitics is Accelerating, Not Slowing, the Transition
In regions heavily exposed to fossil fuel imports, geopolitical risk is reinforcing the case for renewables.
Rather than delaying the transition, current conditions are accelerating diversification and reducing dependency.
Final Thought: Designing for a Permanently Uncertain Market
Geopolitical risk is not going away.
The shift is towards designing investments that can perform through disruption, not in spite of it. Resilience, diversification, and alignment with energy security are becoming defining characteristics of bankable projects.
For investors, developers, and operators, the question is no longer how to avoid uncertainty, but how to structure around it.
If you are reviewing your pipeline, entering new markets, or reassessing risk in the current environment, this is where informed, sector-specific insight becomes critical. Now is the time to challenge assumptions, stress-test strategies, and ensure your approach to talent and delivery is aligned with a more complex investment landscape. If we can assist, reach out at: hello@mintselection.com