The “State of the Energy Transition: Investment Outlook” panel brought together perspectives from infrastructure, banking, advisory, and technology to explore how capital is really flowing across the UK energy market.
The discussion moved beyond ambition, focusing on what is actually getting financed, where projects are stalling, and how investor behaviour is evolving across hydrogen, carbon capture, renewables, and emerging demand centres.
The panel consisted of:
Moderator: Michael Stirling, CEO & Chairman of the Investment Board, Stirling Infrastructure Partners
Daniele Manzi, Head of Sales - ESG Lending, Close Brothers Asset Finance
Ruth Herbert, Managing Director, EET
Derek Christie, Government Affairs, Siemens Energy
Andrew Lee, Managing Director - Energy + Group, Societe General Corporate Investment Banking
Clément Weber, Managing Director - Head of Advisory, Green Giraffe Advisory
A Strong Vision, Slower Execution
The UK’s long-term direction is well understood. Policy frameworks, subsidy mechanisms, and industrial cluster strategies are in place and continue to attract investor interest.
However, delivery remains the key constraint.
Timelines for decision making and contract allocation are extended, creating uncertainty for both developers and lenders. At the same time, evolving criteria and shifting priorities are not always communicated with the clarity or speed the market requires.
The result is not a lack of capital or appetite, but friction in deployment. The opportunity is clear, but execution needs to accelerate to maintain momentum.
Subsidies Are Structural, Not Temporary
There was clear alignment across the panel that support mechanisms remain fundamental to the energy transition.
Only a limited number of technologies, primarily certain solar and battery projects, can operate without structured revenue support. Hydrogen, CCS, and more complex infrastructure continue to rely on government backed frameworks to reach investment viability.
What is shifting is how these mechanisms are perceived.
Reframing subsidies as incentives or tools for energy diversification better reflects their role in managing risk, enabling resilience, and building a more balanced energy system. This distinction matters, particularly as governments seek to justify long approval cycles and demonstrate value to taxpayers.
Hydrogen and CCS: From Scale to Deliverability
Hydrogen and carbon capture remain central to long term decarbonisation, but expectations around scale are becoming more pragmatic.
While industrial clusters continue to show consistent demand, the challenge lies in coordination. Production, transport, storage, and offtake must align geographically and commercially for projects to reach final investment decision.
At the same time, the market is shifting away from gigawatt scale ambition towards more deliverable project sizes.
Projects in the tens of megawatts are where activity is progressing, with lenders increasingly engaging despite the higher relative transaction effort. Alongside this, there is growing traction in e fuels, particularly in Northern Europe, where integration with CO₂ capture is opening new pathways to low carbon and, in some cases, carbon negative fuels.
The direction is clear: progress will be driven by repeatable, well-structured mid-scale projects rather than a small number of flagship developments.
Data Centres Are Redefining Energy Demand
One of the most notable themes was the rapid emergence of data centres as a major driver of energy demand and innovation.
Power requirements are increasing at a pace that is beginning to outstrip grid capacity in certain regions. In response, operators are exploring more integrated energy solutions, including on site generation and alternative technologies.
This is creating new opportunities across fuel cells, flexible generation, and carbon capture integration. In parallel, it raises a broader system question in the UK, where constraint payments and curtailed renewable generation remain significant.
The ability to redirect surplus power into hydrogen production or localised energy systems presents a clear opportunity to better align supply and demand.
Financing the Middle Market Remains Challenging
While large, high-profile projects continue to attract capital, smaller scale developments face a more complex financing landscape.
Green hydrogen and distributed infrastructure projects are often capital intensive relative to their revenue profile, making traditional debt structures more difficult to apply. Transaction costs and complexity can also be disproportionate at this scale.
Alternative models, including asset finance and service-based structures, are emerging but remain resource heavy to execute.
At the same time, end users are still navigating their own transition challenges. Uncertainty around technology choices, operational changes, and long-term economics continues to delay decision making.
There is capital available, but unlocking it at the smaller end of the market requires simpler, more scalable financing approaches.
The UK Remains Competitive, But Not Unchallenged
The UK continues to be seen as one of the most active and attractive energy transition markets globally.
Offshore wind remains a core strength, with renewed momentum, while onshore wind and solar are re-establishing themselves following previous policy constraints. Biogas is also performing strongly, supported by a well defined regulatory framework and favourable market conditions.
However, in areas such as hydrogen and shared infrastructure, the UK is facing increasing competition.
Across Europe, there is a more integrated approach to infrastructure planning, demand mapping, and production support. Faster implementation of mechanisms such as contracts for difference is enabling projects to move more quickly from concept to execution.
In the US, existing infrastructure, particularly around storage and pipelines, continues to provide a structural advantage.
The UK’s position is strong, but maintaining it will depend on speed and coordination.
Storage and Social Licence Will Define Progress
Storage, both for hydrogen and carbon, is emerging as a critical enabler of the next phase of the transition.
Without it, the system cannot fully utilise renewable generation or scale hydrogen and CCS effectively.
However, beyond technical and financial challenges, there is a growing focus on public acceptance. Large scale storage and infrastructure projects require a level of social licence that is not yet fully established in the UK.
Planning constraints and community perception are already influencing project timelines. As with onshore wind previously, broader understanding and engagement will be essential to enable deployment at scale.
Balancing National Strategy with Local Delivery
A consistent theme throughout the discussion was the need to balance top-down strategy with bottom-up execution.
National level planning is essential, particularly for infrastructure and long-term targets, but it is inherently complex and slow moving.
In contrast, many of the most effective solutions are emerging at a local level. Projects tied to specific use cases, geographies, or industrial clusters are proving more agile and more commercially viable.
The most effective pathway forward is likely a combination of both. Clear, decisive national frameworks alongside the flexibility for developers and investors to deliver targeted, practical solutions.
Final Perspective
The UK energy transition is not constrained by ambition or capital. The fundamentals are in place, and investor appetite remains strong.
The challenge is execution.
Progress will be defined by the ability to move faster, reduce complexity, and align infrastructure, policy, and demand. At the same time, the market is becoming more pragmatic, with a shift towards deliverable project sizes, new demand drivers such as data centres, and a growing focus on scalable financing models.
For investors and developers, the opportunity remains significant. Those able to navigate complexity, structure projects effectively, and align with evolving demand will be best positioned to capitalise on the next phase of growth.
As these trends continue to shape the market, the ability to secure the right expertise across investment, development, and delivery will be critical.
If you’re building capability in these areas or exploring your next move within the energy transition, we’d welcome a discussion: hello@mintselection.com